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Economy at turning point?
Are we at a turning point in the U.S. economy or are we mistaken? Some analysts and news anchors, reinforced by information from the February jobs reports, are taking an optimistic stance. A careful look inside those reports may help us confirm their optimism or reject it.
Unlike product and financial market information, labor market information is especially insightful because it gauges the performance of the economy in human terms, in terms of the persons who work or want to work.
The numbers from the establishment report, which indicate that employers between January and February added 236,000 workers to their payrolls, suggest optimistically that we are at a turning point. So too does the decline in the jobless rate to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent. Both month-to-month changes are not just nominally better, they are statistically significant.
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Edward J. O’Boyle is Senior Research Associate with Mayo Research Institute.
He has offices in West Monroe, Lake Charles and New Orleans. He can be reached at 381-4002 or edoboyle@earthlink.net. |
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